51
Material
598
Transaksi
53 bln
Observasi
Rp 10,19 M
Total Nilai
88,2%
Item Stabil
10
Class A — Paparan ekonomi tinggi. Review bulanan: verifikasi valuasi, kritisitas, lead time, substitusi.
15
Class B — Aktif, recent, variabel. Paling tidak stabil. Review exception bulanan + quarterly full.
26
Class C — Sparse, aktivitas rendah. Review semester + override kritisitas teknik.
Internal Validity
Silhouette
0,270
Unconstrained = 0,361
Calinski-Harabasz
29,324
Unconstrained = 37,867
Davies-Bouldin
1,226
Unconstrained = 1,077
Within-cluster SSE
11,772
Unconstrained = 10,146
Capacity constraint menurunkan compactness, tapi membuat workload review eksplisit.
Surrogate Fidelity
Macro-F1
0,825
Gate threshold ≥ 0,80
Balanced Accuracy
0,838
Recall A=0,830 B=0,703 C=0,980
Shapley Contributions
| Fitur | Global | Peran Utama |
|---|---|---|
| EV Economic Exposure | 0,151 | Tingkatkan P(A) |
| DM Demand Magnitude | 0,091 | Bedaankan B |
| TF Transaction Freq. | 0,089 | Redundan untuk partition |
| ZR Zero-demand Ratio | 0,080 | Intermitensi unik |
| DS Demand-size Instab. | — | Variabilitas batch |
| RS Recency Score | — | Kesegaran aktivitas |
Restart Stability
| Median ARI ke selected | 0,923 |
| Starts mencapai optimum | 57 / 200 |
| Starts dalam 1% optimum | 56 tambahan |
| Item dengan konsensus < 0,80 | 3 (initialization-sensitive) |
Bootstrap Stability
| Median assigned probability | 0,932 |
| Item dengan prob < 0,70 | 15 (provisional boundary) |
| Exact partition rate | 0,000 (tidak ada replika sempurna) |
15 item provisional bukan model failure — mereka identifikasi boundary case yang perlu review teknik & data tambahan.
Sensitivitas
| Skenario | ARI | Changed |
|---|---|---|
| Unconstrained K-means | 0,558 | 9 item |
| Value-only ABC | 0,230 | 21 item |
| Fast/slow labels | N/A | 6 fast → B |
| S2: movement 961 only | 0,487 | 10 item |
| S3: raw zero values | 0,923 | 2 item |
| S4: 2021-2024 only | 0,487 | 10 item |
| S5: robust z-score | 0,654 | 10 item |
| S6: kapasitas 15-35-50% | 0,622 | 9 item |
| S7a: exclude TF | 0,923 | 2 item |
| S7b: exclude ZR | 0,735 | 6 item |
Movement code & time window paling sensitif (10 item). Zero-value imputation hanya mengubah 2 item.
Metodologi
01Data: 598 transaksi issue dari SAP, 51 material Clinker Cooler, Jan 2021 – Mei 2025 (53 bulan).
026 fitur: EV, DM, TF, ZR, DS, RS — dinormalisasi percentile rank [0,1].
03Constrained K-means (kapasitas tetap A=10, B=15, C=26). 200 starts, orientasi A>B>C.
Korelation terkuat: ZR vs TF (Spearman rho = -0,971). Median material aktif 3 dari 53 bulan.
Temuan Kunci
EV jadi pembeda utama Class A (Shapley 0,151). DM bedakan Class B (0,091).
88,2% item stabil di kelasnya (prob ≥ 0,8). 15 item provisional perlu review teknik.
Agreement dengan value-only ABC rendah (ARI 0,230) — kelas bukan sekedar ranking nilai.
Penting: Kelas adalah review designation, bukan otomatis stock level. Kelas menentukan fokus review, bukan kebijakan stok.
Daftar Material (BOM)
| # | Kode | Deskripsi | Kategori |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SI00013826 | BOLT&NUT:HEX;M20X2.5X70;8.8;HT;BF | Fast |
| 2 | SI00013809 | BOLT&NUT:HEX;M16X2X70;8.8;HT;BF | Fast |
| 3 | SI00013851 | BOLT&NUT:CSK.SOC;M20X2.5X70;10.9;HT;BF | Fast |
| 4 | SI00013814 | BOLT&NUT:HEX;M12X1.75X30;8.8;HT;BF | Fast |
| 5 | SI00013808 | BOLT&NUT:HEX;M12X1.75X40;8.8;HT;BF | Fast |
| 6 | SI00013789 | BOLT&NUT:HEX;M12X1.75X50;8.8;HT;BF | Fast |
| 7 | 616-200622 | SEAL, BLOCK SHIM T=2; DWG.13035133 | Slow |
| 8 | 316-201129 | PART,FERRO:CROSS BAR KJ210;PT-507-M-092 | Slow |
| 9 | 316-200921 | PART,CASTING:CC;CB KJ210M;PPC.M-04-550 | Slow |
| 10 | 316-201127 | CROSS, BAR KJ-212 | Slow |
| 11 | 316-200920 | PART,CAST:CC;CB KJ-245;PPC.M-04-467 | Slow |
| 12 | 316-201130 | PART,CAST:CC;CB KJ-214;SG-M-04-042 | Slow |
| 13 | 316-200924 | PART,CAST:CC;COVER LOCK;PPC.M-04-574 | Slow |
| 14 | 317-200740 | S-PART,CC;C-PROFILE 590:PPC.M-04-552 | Slow |
| 15 | 317-200625 | S-PART,CC;C-PROFILE 1190:PPC.M-04-553 | Slow |
| 16 | 317-200755 | SPRING, SPRING PIN 8,2 X 150; SS400 | Slow |
| 17 | 317-200448 | PLATE,AIR DIST;592X232X40MM;317-200448 | Slow |
| 18 | 317-200699 | PLATE,AIR DIST;4175X220X45MM;317-200699 | Slow |
| 19 | 317-200641 | CYLINDER, BRACKET MOVEABLE 45DIA; DWG.13 | Slow |
| 20 | 317-200729 | CONNECTING, PIN 207 45DIA; DWG.13044716 | Slow |
| 21 | 317-200653 | CYLINDER, BRACKET FIXED 45DIA; DWG.13044 | Slow |
| 22 | 317-200654 | CONNECTING, PIN FIXED 45DIA; 6415367 | Slow |
| 23 | SI00017264 | DRIVE,PLATE,CC;4140MM;PPC.M-04-44-236 | Slow |
| 24 | 317-200550 | PLATE, NEW DRIVE PLATE 2740; F/443CC1 | Slow |
| 25 | 317-200509 | DRIVE PLATE;CC;2740MM;PT-407-M-063;1OF1 | Slow |
| 26 | 316-200922 | DRIVE,PLATE,CC;2740MM;PPC.M-04-522 | Slow |
| 27 | 317-200538 | PLATE, DRIVE PLATE 4200 VERSION 3; F/443 | Slow |
| 28 | 316-200923 | DRIVE,PLATE,CC;4200MM;PPC.M-05-47-231 | Slow |
| 29 | 316-200850 | TRAY, TRAY 3000; 3994041 | Slow |
| 30 | 316-200694 | TRAY, TRAY 4200; 3977307; 13027710 | Slow |
| 31 | 616-200648 | SEAL, BLOCK SHIM T=1; DWG.13035133 | Slow |
| 32 | 616-200667 | SEAL, BLOCK UPPER; DWG.13035132; P/N.321 | Slow |
| 33 | 616-201110 | SEAL, SEAL BLOCK LOWER; 3212378 | Slow |
| 34 | 615-201539 | BOLT, T; M16X1.5MMX155MM | Slow |
| 35 | 615-201540 | BOLT, T; M16X1.5MMX140MM | Slow |
| 36 | 615-201541 | BOLT,FAB:M16X1,5X95MM;SG-M-04-061 | Slow |
| 37 | 615-201542 | BOLT, T; M16X1.5MMX70MM | Slow |
| 38 | 316-200550 | PLATE, BEARING BRACKET PLATE; 3208917 | Slow |
| 39 | 623-201840 | BEARING, 13027776 1 SET | Slow |
| 40 | 602-200595 | SUPPORT ROLLER,ASSEMBLY:PT-407-M-055 | Slow |
| 41 | 317-200412 | REGULATOR, REGULATOR 90904 S | Slow |
| 42 | 317-200324 | REGULATOR, REGULATOR 80804 S | Slow |
| 43 | 317-200308 | REGULATOR, REGULATOR 70704 S | Slow |
| 44 | 317-200449 | REGULATOR, REGULATOR 60604 S | Slow |
| 45 | 620-200096 | COUPLING, ROTEX 75-ST-92/1.0 80 AND RA00 | Slow |
| 46 | 331-200898 | PUMP, AXIAL-PISTON PUMP; A4VG175EP2DPR00 | Slow |
| 47 | 317-200657 | S-PART,CB:16X73;WEDGE;4093092 | Slow |
| 48 | SI00035720 | S-PART,CB:18X66;O;GRATE PL300HT;4138790 | Slow |
| 49 | SI00035719 | S-PART,CB:18X66;O;GRATE PL300;4138792 | Slow |
| 50 | SI00035721 | S-PART,CB:18X66;O;THERMO CPL B;7109512 | Slow |
| 51 | SI00006940 | MOTOR,AC:SC;75KW;400V;1500;B35;F-BA000 | Slow |
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Explainable Semi-Supervised Classification • Diva Kurnianingtyas